In Japan’s Oct. 27 general election, the ruling coalition, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Kōmeitō, fell short of securing a majority—a pivotal event that could redefine how Japan’s prime minister is chosen. For decades, Japan’s prime minister has typically been the leader of the LDP (with a minor deviation due to the 1993-1994 coalition government and when the Democratic Party of Japan, or the DPJ, was the leading party between 2009 to 2012), with the party’s strong majority allowing this selection to happen smoothly and internally. But as Japan enters a phase of coalition-building and negotiation, the process of determining leadership may soon be less straightforward and require greater compromise.

Q: How does Japan choose a prime minister?

Unlike many countries where citizens directly vote for their head of government, the selection of Japan’s prime minister occurs within the Diet: Japan’s national legislature. The House of Representatives, the more powerful of Japan’s two parliamentary chambers, ultimately decides the prime minister by vote. That means majority control in the House is essential for a smooth selection, and the ruling party’s leader almost always becomes prime minister when they have a clear majority. Traditionally, the LDP’s dominance has meant the leader of the LDP ascends to the premiership through an internal election among LDP members rather than through direct public voting.

Q: How does the LDP choose its leader?

Within the LDP, leaders are selected through an internal election process that occurs every three years. This election includes LDP Diet members and rank-and-file party members who vote for a leader they believe can best represent their shared values and policy goals. Given the factional nature of the LDP—where members are often divided into groups with differing policy preferences—this election process frequently involves compromises; with candidates needing to secure support across factions to win. This structure creates a tense balance among various ideological camps within the party, but it also means that when the LDP lacks a majority, factional alliances and internal power dynamics become even more critical.

Q: What powers does the prime minister of Japan hold?

The prime minister of Japan holds substantial authority but operates within a carefully balanced system of governance. As the head of government, the prime minister directs the Cabinet; shaping the country’s domestic policies and representing Japan on the global stage. Working closely with the Diet, particularly the House of Representatives, the prime minister helps draft laws, introduces national budgets, and depends on votes of confidence to ensure continued support. Though the House of Councillors, the upper chamber, does have legislative power, the lower house’s decisions often hold sway; particularly in financial and confidence-related matters. One of the prime minister’s most impactful powers is the ability to dissolve the House of Representatives; essentially calling for a new election—an influential tool that enables the government to renew its mandate if needed. However, checks on the prime minister’s authority do exist. Opposition parties can challenge the prime minister through a no-confidence vote, potentially requiring new elections if they succeed.

Q: How do factional politics in the LDP impact leadership?

Factionalism within the LDP adds another layer of complexity. Unlike many political systems, where internal factions have little sway, the LDP’s factions can make or break leadership bids. A candidate able to unite multiple factions often becomes the party’s leader; with factional cohesion seen as essential for political stability. In times of uncertainty, the LDP is known to prioritize leaders who can garner broad support across factions. This dynamic could shape future leadership if the LDP seeks to replace its leader following electoral losses especially if party members look for a consensus candidate who can unify the party. Finance Minister Katō Katsunobu, for example, is viewed by some as a potential compromise leader due to his connections across various factions; appealing to both conservative and reformist members.

Q: What impact did the recent election have on coalition politics in Japan?

With the LDP and Kōmeitō no longer in the majority, Japan may face a period of coalition governments and minority rule. This situation introduces a level of unpredictability as no single party currently commands the power to choose the prime minister independently. Several paths could emerge from this election result: the LDP might attempt to govern as a minority and seek support from opposition parties like Ishin or the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) on a case-by-case basis. However, this would be a fragile arrangement and would be susceptible to frequent no-confidence votes and compromises on key issues. Alternatively, the LDP might negotiate a coalition with one or more smaller parties; though leaders of several opposition parties like the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) have expressed reluctance to form a coalition with the LDP. These parties also saw an improved electoral performance by criticizing the LDP so it is unlikely they would want to enter a power-sharing arrangement with the unpopular party. Should these coalition talks succeed, however, the process of selecting the next prime minister could become more complex; as broader alignment across multiple parties may be necessary to secure support in the Diet.

Japan’s New Political Era: What Lies Ahead?

Japan is entering a period of political adjustment and potentially new power-sharing arrangements. The selection of the next prime minister, typically a straightforward choice within the LDP, could require broader negotiation and alignment among various parties and factions. For voters, this political evolution could bring new leaders and policies into the government that could potentially increase the representation of diverse public interests. Yet it could also usher in shorter-lived governments; where frequent compromises dilute decisive action on key issues and prime ministers shuffle in and out of office in short order. Current Prime Minister Ishiba faces an uphill battle in retaining the premiership, but one cannot discount Ishiba's success in navigating the LDP leadership race. He will need to display shrewd political maneuvering to maintain his position.

The LDP is trying to steer through uncharted waters. The relative strength of the LDP, albeit with the brief interregnum of the DPJ’s success in the early 2010s, has been significantly weakened by political scandals. Choosing the right captain to navigate will be crucial for the LDP to remain the dominant force in Japanese politics. The next prime minister will be faced with innumerable challenges such as: economic reform, updating energy policies to meet decabonisation targets, and spearheading Japan’s approach to international relations. Gemini Group will continue to monitor the developments of the 2024 Japanese federal election and will provide our insight as the political landscape evolves.

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